Another big tsunami could hit Indonesia
source: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N05305138.htm
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Another big tsunami could hit Sumatra within the next few decades, flooding densely populated regions south of where a giant wave hit in December 2004, U.S. and Indonesian researchers predicted on Tuesday.
The same big geologic fault, called a megathrust, that caused the 2004 tsunami continues to run parallel to the southeast, along the Indian Ocean coast of Sumatra, with the potential to a affect areas to the south, the team at the California Institute of Technology, the University of Southern California and elsewhere reported.
Pressure is building and it could move at any time, they said.
"Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004," the researchers wrote in their report, published in this week's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Movements along this section caused two big quakes and tsunamis in 1797 and 1833, the researchers reported. They used a combination of history and geology to predict what might happen again.
"When we tell people living along this 700-kilometer (435 mile) section of the Sumatran coast that they will likely experience a big tsunami within the next 30 years, they ask for details," said Kerry Sieh, a professor of geology at Caltech who has studied many earthquakes in the region.
"How much time after the earthquake will they have before the tsunami strikes? How big will the waves be? How far inland should they be prepared to run? What areas are likely to suffer tsunami damage?" Sieh asked.
"This paper is our first attempt to answer these important questions."
A monster quake of magnitude 9.1 in December 2004 just off Sumatra's coast caused a tsunami that crossed the Indian Ocean to Sri Lanka, Thailand and even Africa's coast. More than 230,000 people died or disappeared in a dozen countries in the devastation.
Sieh's team has reported on several potential quake zones, based on measurements of the sea floor and known faults. The area is prone to geologic activity and big quakes are frequent -- and frequently fatal.
In this week's report, they said they studied samples of coral from the islands that show how much previous quakes have lifted the sea floor.
Offshore islands may shield Sumatra's city of Padang somewhat, but in 1797 the tsunami was reported to have carried a 200-ton English ship into the town, they said.
"The population of Padang in 1797 and 1833 was a few thousand," Sieh said in a statement.
"Now it is about 800,000, and most of it is within a few meters (yards) of sea level. We hope that these initial results will help focus educational efforts, emergency preparedness activities, and changes in the basic infrastructure of cities and towns along the Sumatran coast."
Countries likely to be affected are installing warning systems. Last week Thailand launched the first of 22 U.S.-made tsunami-detection buoys, and the next buoy will go off Sumatra's coast.
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Another big tsunami could hit Sumatra within the next few decades, flooding densely populated regions south of where a giant wave hit in December 2004, U.S. and Indonesian researchers predicted on Tuesday.
The same big geologic fault, called a megathrust, that caused the 2004 tsunami continues to run parallel to the southeast, along the Indian Ocean coast of Sumatra, with the potential to a affect areas to the south, the team at the California Institute of Technology, the University of Southern California and elsewhere reported.
Pressure is building and it could move at any time, they said.
"Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004," the researchers wrote in their report, published in this week's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Movements along this section caused two big quakes and tsunamis in 1797 and 1833, the researchers reported. They used a combination of history and geology to predict what might happen again.
"When we tell people living along this 700-kilometer (435 mile) section of the Sumatran coast that they will likely experience a big tsunami within the next 30 years, they ask for details," said Kerry Sieh, a professor of geology at Caltech who has studied many earthquakes in the region.
"How much time after the earthquake will they have before the tsunami strikes? How big will the waves be? How far inland should they be prepared to run? What areas are likely to suffer tsunami damage?" Sieh asked.
"This paper is our first attempt to answer these important questions."
A monster quake of magnitude 9.1 in December 2004 just off Sumatra's coast caused a tsunami that crossed the Indian Ocean to Sri Lanka, Thailand and even Africa's coast. More than 230,000 people died or disappeared in a dozen countries in the devastation.
Sieh's team has reported on several potential quake zones, based on measurements of the sea floor and known faults. The area is prone to geologic activity and big quakes are frequent -- and frequently fatal.
In this week's report, they said they studied samples of coral from the islands that show how much previous quakes have lifted the sea floor.
Offshore islands may shield Sumatra's city of Padang somewhat, but in 1797 the tsunami was reported to have carried a 200-ton English ship into the town, they said.
"The population of Padang in 1797 and 1833 was a few thousand," Sieh said in a statement.
"Now it is about 800,000, and most of it is within a few meters (yards) of sea level. We hope that these initial results will help focus educational efforts, emergency preparedness activities, and changes in the basic infrastructure of cities and towns along the Sumatran coast."
Countries likely to be affected are installing warning systems. Last week Thailand launched the first of 22 U.S.-made tsunami-detection buoys, and the next buoy will go off Sumatra's coast.
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